FollowUP presents three scenarios for the industry retail until the end of 2020
Valora Analitik / September 2, 2020
According to an analysis of the firm FollowUP on the second half of the year for the industry of retail, there are three scenarios to their own budgets to the Covid-19.
Without reactivation of the market, FollowUP sees that sales remain around the 40% compared to 2019. If you do not show a recovery in the following months due to the government restrictions, the sales are going to depend on the seasonality of each month.
With a revival market averagein the third quarter of the year continues to hit due to the situation of Covid-19 and the different locks in Barranquilla, Bogota and Medellin, among other cities. However, it can be seen a small revival taking into account the projection of the GDP, especially in the fourth quarter of the year.
For its part, with an optimistic scenario, it is expected that as of August there will be a reactivation of the market, which will improve in each of the following months. In this scenario it gives you a greater participation to the projection of the GDP made by the National Government.
Here's a look at each one of the scenarios per month: negative, intermediate and positive, respectively.
Negative scenario
Stage intermediate
Positive scenario
FollowUP stressed that, seeking to establish the accuracy of the assumptions, you ran the predictive model to determine the sale of July 2020.
Thus, the model predicted a sale of the 41,39% with respect to 2019 and the evidence confirmed that, in July, we sold the 41,47% of what is sold in the same month of the previous year.
